Dominic LeBlanc, next prime minister? It’s being floated

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Prime Minister Dominic LeBlanc?

The idea that LeBlanc could be handed the reins of the federal Liberal party if Justin Trudeau’s stock continues to plummet is circulating in Ottawa, with onlookers suggesting it’s a real possibility.

“It’s talk that you’re hearing more and more,” said Jordan O’Brien, head of the Fredericton-based consulting firm Porter O’Brien and ex-premier Brian Gallant’s former chief of staff. “He’s loved by caucus, which is maybe part of the incumbent’s problem.

“He’s also loved by Parliamentarians. In spite of the fact that he’s very partisan, he doesn’t seem to be very divisive.

“And he’s got this reputation now as Mr. Fix It, and I think if Liberals are looking at what kind of person they need as their next leader it’s probably a Mr. Fix It type.

“There’s a compelling case there.”

Donald Savoie, one of New Brunswick’s foremost public policy experts, says LeBlanc has what the Liberals appear to be sorely missing.

“Dominic is the best communicator we have in Canada, he outshines everybody, and I mean everybody, in the ability to connect in both official languages,” Savoie said.

The speculation follows a Globe and Mail column by Lawrence Martin this past week that also alluded to the possibility.

“In the unlikely event that Trudeau does leave, sources tell me we should keep an eye on Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc, a close friend of the prime minister who is interested in succeeding him,” Martin writes. “He would have Mr. Trudeau’s blessing.”

There are no signs of Trudeau leaving just yet, despite facing repeated questions from reporters last week on whether he’s wearing out his welcome.

Trudeau rejected the notion of stepping down amid plummeting poll numbers when first asked whether he would resign as the Liberal leader during a news conference at the party’s London, Ont., caucus retreat.

“We’re two years away from the next elections,” Trudeau responded. “I will continue to do my work, there’s still a lot of important work to do to deliver to Canadians during these difficult times.

“And I remain enthusiastic and relentless in regard to this work.”

Trudeau was asked about his own deputies making anonymous leaks to the press in an effort to push him out, and at what point he would simply say “I’m done.”

He faced yet another question on when the right time was for a head of a party to leave.

Each answer stressed “frank” and “honest” conversations with his cabinet and caucus, while focusing on the country’s challenges.

“We did a lot for this country, and we will continue to do a lot. I have great ambitions for this country and I look forward to continuing the work we’re doing together,” Trudeau said.

He faced the same question at a press conference wrapping up the caucus meeting on Thursday, asking why he’s still the best person to lead the party.

“We, as a team, are united and focused on solving the big challenges that Canadians are facing,” Trudeau said.

But several pollsters already have the spread between the federal Conservatives and Liberals at double digits. Election projection site 338canada.com currently has the odds of the Conservatives winning the most seats in a next election at 98 per cent.

It predicts there’s a 64 per cent chance of a Conservative majority.

Calls for change will undoubtedly only get louder if the gap widens.

LeBlanc’s leadership aspirations aren’t new.

He was the first candidate to officially announce his intention to seek the leadership of the Liberal party in 2008 to replace outgoing leader Stéphane Dion, but less than two months later he dropped out in what was a coronation around Michael Ignatieff.

LeBlanc then backed childhood friend Trudeau in a 2012 leadership race.

Savoie, although admitting a bias as he was good friends with Dominic’s dad Roméo LeBlanc, a pallbearer at his funeral, said Dominic has gained a stronger and stronger national reputation since those initial leadership aspirations.

In a cabinet shuffle this summer, LeBlanc was again tapped to take on a file that the federal Liberals have fumbled, taking over Public Safety from Marco Mendicino amid controversies surrounding China’s election interference, government gun control legislation, and serial killer Paul Bernardo’s transfer to a medium-security prison.

In just the last few months, LeBlanc was also asked by Trudeau to decide whether MP Han Dong can rejoin the federal Liberal caucus, after facing damaging foreign interference allegations.

Trudeau then tasked him with finding David Johnston’s replacement, a monumental request that means defusing opposition pressure and solving the government’s current biggest problem.

That’s as LeBlanc already chairs the cabinet operations committee that coordinates day to day parliamentary planning, while also being part of the cabinet’s incident response group formed to respond to any national crisis.

He’s also one of two Liberals part of a group that stick handles the confidence and supply agreement with the NDP that’s propping up the government.

Struggling with the country’s premiers? LeBlanc was appointed to the intergovernmental affairs file that got a health care spending deal across the line.

Provinces not spending? LeBlanc, for a time, was given the infrastructure file too.

“The only handshake deal that would be possible in my view would be a quiet one, a behind the scenes one,” Savoie said of whether Trudeau would be planning to see LeBlanc as his successor. “Behind the scenes, prime ministers can have a big say, unleashing their troops to support a certain candidate.

“Trudeau could say ‘open convention,’ but behind the scenes he would have his own views.”

O’Brien points out that if Trudeau was to run and win what would be a fourth term, it would make him the first since Prime Minister Wilfrid Laurier, now over 110 years ago, to accomplish that feat.

“I can’t imagine, regardless of polls and regardless of election outcomes, that he will be around for that much longer,” he said. “I think there will be a leadership race in the federal Liberal party in four years or less, probably less.”

And with the Trudeau-LeBlanc relationship extending back to their fathers, with Pierre Trudeau as prime minister and Dominic’s father Roméo in cabinet, the discussion of who succeeds Justin Trudeau has bound to have come up.

“So if he was ever going to point at anybody, it would be who you would think he would point at, even out of loyalty and personal friendship,” O’Brien said.

It could come down to whether LeBlanc wants the job.

“There are no signs that he’s organizing himself,” O’Brien said. “But I tell you I was in Ottawa earlier this week and his name comes up more and more.

“People are trying to decide who they are going to back and then at the end of their conversation it always ends with ‘jeeze, wouldn’t it be nice if Dominic LeBlanc would run.’ While he’s certainly not in the middle of it, there are certainly a lot of people who would roll out the red carpet for him.”